Donald Trump’s win would be beneficial for Pakistan?

U.S. foreign policy is to a large extent determined by self-interest as opposed to personal feelings. It is doubtful that the U.S. will interfere in Pakistan’s internal politics by supporting any particular leader, all the more so since the economic situation and inflation rates are currently high. On the other hand, if Trump continues with his ‘America First’ approach, the U.S. might step back from its involvement in the Middle East, thus easing off on the pressure in the region. However, during Trump’s first term he also instituted a number of sanctions and diplomatic restrictions against countries in the region including Iran, which had a negative impact on regional dynamics and oil supply.

Pakistan’s optimism regarding the advantages of the US elections is based on the premise that a Republican candidate like Donald Trump might come along and lend his support to Imran Khan and not involve himself in the Middle East conflicts thus promoting some stability in the region. However, these hopes do not take into consideration a correct understanding of the policies of Trump and the effects these may have on the economies of the world. The second Trump presidency will also exacerbate inflationary trends which does not bode well for an import-led economy like Pakistan. Finally, the advantages that are envisaged in the Middle East are likely to turn out in the reverse affecting Pakistan adversely.

Analyst Mehdi Hasan divulges that Trump’s hawkish stance on the Middle East will make economic and military quarrels even more probable. In 2018, oil prices skyrocketed by 25% more due to the sanctions placed on Iran which affected the oil supply chain globally. This would put pressure on Pakistan’s foreign reserves which relies on imports for almost 85% of its energy and would boost the prices that have already been capped at about $7 billion as by the year 2024.

The professionals anticipate that Trump will primarily put his efforts on strategies towards Israel and Arab nations, especially in the context of Iran. Economically speaking, several of Trump’s policies such as these including tariffs, limits on immigration and tax cuts stand the chance of heightening inflation, more so, in Pakistan, because they are likely to raise the cost of making goods in the US, as well as the prices of imported goods.